-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
All hail the king of tight ends! Travis Kelce has finished TE1 in PPR fantasy scoring in six of the last seven seasons, settling for a runner-up finish behind Mark Andrews in 2021. The gap between Kelce and all other tight ends was a vast chasm in 2022. Kelce averaged 19.2 PPR points; the next-closest tight end, T.J. Hockenson, averaged 13.3 fantasy points. Kelce has strung together seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and he's averaged 8.4 touchdowns per year over that span. In 2022, he had a career-high 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. Age is the only real concern for Kelce, who turns 34 in October. But he's been indestructible for most of his career. He missed a game in 2020 due to COVID-19, but Kelce hasn't missed a game due to injury over the last nine years. Kelce is a worth first-round pick in fantasy drafts, and you can make a strong case that he should be a top-five pick.
George Kittle remains one of the NFL's most talented tight ends and is arguably the hardest to tackle. He's coming off a strange season in which he scored a career-high 11 touchdowns but averaged 51 receiving yards per game -- the fewest since his rookie year in 2017. Kittle has been remarkably efficient as a pass catcher, with a career average of 9.6 yards per target. The question is whether Kittle will be targeted often enough to suit his fantasy managers. The 49ers are in flux at the QB position, and Kittle will have to share targets with RB Christian McCaffrey and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
After catching 107 passes for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns and leading all tight ends in fantasy scoring in 2021, Mark Andrews was off to a hot start in 2022 before his production fell off in October. Andrews had 39-455-5 over his first six games but then had 34-392-0 over his last nine games while dealing with knee and shoulder issues, along with the late-season absence of injured QB Lamar Jackson. The upside remains vast for the 27-year-old Andrews, who's a worthy TE target if you miss out on Travis Kelce.
A situational wildcat quarterback masquerading as a tight end, Taysom Hill finished TE5 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last year. Hill was wildly inconsistent from week to week, however, and a 112-yard, three-TD rushing performance vs. Seattle in Week 5 accounted for a massive chunk of his fantasy scoring. Hill's fantasy value for 2023 depends largely on his usage. With Derek Carr arriving in New Orleans during the offseason, it seems likely the Saints will reduce Hill's snap counts, rendering him a fantasy afterthought who might have a couple of splash weeks but won't provide bankable value.
Hockenson averaged 13.0 PPR points per game in his 10 matchups as a member of the Vikings, but that number is propped up by a ludicrous 35.9 PPR point explosion against the Giants in Week 16. He even blew up again versus the Giants in the playoffs to the tune of 22.9 PPR points. Without that regular-season game against New York, Hockenson averaged 7.8 targets and 10.4 PPR points per game. That's still not bad -- only seven TEs averaged more Fantasy points per game and only Travis Kelce had more targets per game. The addition of Jordan Addison to the offense will sting, but Hockenson should remain a key part of the Vikings' pass-happy system. Hockenson's target volume should push him into the 11-point-per-game range in PPR. He's well worth a pick after 60th overall in PPR and 70th overall in non-PPR.