-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
With the rest of the Rams falling apart around him, Higbee had one of his best years as a pro. His 20.9% target share was a career-high. Unfortunately, he still failed to finish the year as a top-12 tight end largely because he scored three receiving touchdowns despite being targeted 16 times in the red zone. We should expect some regression on the touchdown rate, but we should also expect the target rate to drop with Cooper Kupp healthy. Then again, Higbee actually averaged more targets per game the first eight weeks of the season when Kupp was healthy. We're drafting Higbee as a high-end No. 2 tight end in the double-digit rounds, but he'll deliver a big profit at that cost if his target share doesn't shrink and his touchdown rate regresses.
We are drafting Kittle as a mid-range starting tight end in the Round 6 or 7 range of most Fantasy drafts. Seven of Kittle's career-high 11 touchdowns came in the final four weeks of the regular season that Brock Purdy started. But there were also reasons to be concerned about Kittle's numbers with Purdy. He caught more than four passes just once in six games with Purdy and only topped 30 yards twice. Regardless of those concerns, we would be much more worried if Trey Lance was starting because of what that would do to the team's total pass volume. As long as you don't draft Kittle expecting him to match his peak performance from 2018 or 2019, you should be happy with the results.
Henry will likely remain the No. 1 tight end for the Patriots this season, but he has competition for targets in new addition Mike Gesicki. Henry is only worth drafting with a late-round pick in tight-end premium leagues. In two seasons in New England, Henry has underperformed with 91 catches for 1,112 yards and 11 touchdowns on 134 targets, and he averaged just 6.1 PPR points per game in 2022. He should improve in 2023 with a better offensive system under new coordinator Bill O'Brien, but Gesicki should prove to be tougher competition for targets compared to Jonnu Smith. At best, Henry could be a red-zone threat for the Patriots like he was in 2021 when he scored nine touchdowns, and he averaged 9.7 PPR points per game that year. But if he plays to that level, just add him off the waiver wire.
Engram had a career resurgence in his first year with one of the NFL's tight end whisperers in Doug Pederson after getting away from Jason Garrett's system that miscast him as a tight end who should be running stick routes. Engram finished as a TE1 in six games in 2022 and the TE7 in points per game in PPR. Consistency wasn't there for Engram and he had eight games where he finished outside the top 24 at tight end. That could become a bigger issue in 2023 with Calvin Ridley in the mix. Look to draft Engram in Round 7 of your Fantasy drafts.